A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
