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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still